Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidency.

Here's why. Historically, the 2008 November election was significant because hordes of black voters joined the political conversation and shook off voter malaise to elect Obama. The reason is simple: he and his team of advisors were able to keep the issues in the media largely about all voters - not just black/white issues, and were able to squelch divisive talk about voter intimidation and disenfranchisement. The turnout was so overwhelming, numbers like what was measured in Minnesota make reporting on them seem like a misprint: Some precincts in Minnesota saw an increase of black voters from the 2004 election of 268%.

Notice the media killing the 'vetting' from Breitbart.com and any other media portrayal of Barack Obama as squarely in front of issues of race and class.

Notice also, too, the White House's reluctance to get involved with the Trayvon Martin shooting.

The only way Mitt Romney wins the election in November is if somehow voter apathy returns to the black voting bloc and they do not - for the very first time - support a black candidate in overwhelming numbers.